President Barack Obama won Virginia and New Jersey last year on his way to capturing the White House. But on Tuesday, November 3, voters in those states put Republicans in their respective governors’ mansions.

Republicans say that the results were a referendum on Obama; Democrats counter by pointing to their party’s victory in a special election for an upstate New York House seat.

The meaning of Election Day 2009 may not be determined for a while. But one thing is clear. Democratic losses in two Obama states increase the “fierce urgency of now” for the party on health care reform.

Certainly health care advocates see overhaul as good policy and even a moral imperative. Remember that there also is a strong political catalyst for the effort. Democrats control the White House and both chambers of Congress by large margins. But their sway will hold in its current form until next November.

When voters go to the polls in 2010, they only have to increase the number of Republicans in the Senate by a couple to completely change the political calculus. Right now the GOP has 40 seats while the Democratic caucus numbers 60, just enough to stop a filibuster.

Democrats enjoy a commanding majority of 256 on the House side. But a loss of 20 or so seats could force House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to slow the breakneck speed at which bills can move through the chamber thanks to rules favoring the party in power. She and her Democratic colleagues have to get health care reform done now.

In fact, Pelosi has had to work hard to come up with 218 votes for the health care reform bill that she and dozens of other Democrats introduced last week to great fanfare on the west front of the Capitol.

It’s a melding of the three bills passed over the summer by various House committees and costs either $894 billion or $1.2 trillion over 10 years, depending on which Congressional Budget Office numbers you use.

As the House leaders approached the assembled crowd—composed most of advocacy groups and interns—strains of a U2 song blared over the loud speakers: “You make me feel like I can fly so high,” Bono sang in the refrain.

They have descended closer to earth as they move toward a debate in the full House late this week. The bill text (H.R. 3962) and has been posted on the Web. Good luck wading through that 1,990-page behemoth.

As they build up to floor action, House leaders must deal with recalcitrant Democrats who have concerns about federal funding of abortions in medical plans, coverage of illegal immigrants and a government-run insurance program.

So far, liberals are holding their fire on the so-called public option. They favored the “robust” version that would use Medicare reimbursement rates. Instead, the final bill lets hospitals and doctors negotiate rates with the government.

The revision likely will put many conservative Blue Dog Democrats on board and help ensure approval. “This change now gets us over the top,” said Rep. Earl Pomeroy, D-North Dakota.

It’s also a near certainty that no Republican will vote for the bill. The GOP has offered its own alternative.

Over in the Senate, Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nevada, has melded the two Senate bills and included a public option that allows states to “opt out.” It’s not clear yet whether he has the 60 votes needed to move the bill to the Senate floor and the 60 required to bring it to a final vote.

The Senate is waiting on a CBO cost estimate before proceeding to floor debate, which could drag into next year.

But don’t hold your breath. In the end, Democrats will approve some kind of health care bill. They must for the sake of the Democratic president. It’s debatable whether gubernatorial losses in Virginia and New Jersey reflect poorly on Obama.

If his signature domestic issue—health care reform—fails, it will be tantamount to a vote of no confidence. The administration won’t be brought down, as it would in a parliamentary system, but it could suffer lasting damage.