By now, the only thing that should be surprising about economic bad news is that the experts are surprised by it.

Yesterday, the figure of 573,000 new unemployment claims blew past the 520,000 estimate from analysis firm Briefing.com. The payroll job loss tally from last week was a bigger shocker still. U.S. employers shed 533,000 payroll jobs in November, nearly 80 percent more than the 300,000 forecast by Briefing.com.

Briefing.com is far from alone in underestimating the severity of our troubles. Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal kept proclaiming the bottom of the housing market too soon, Salon.com columnist Andrew Leonard noted last year.

What’s an employer to do in the midst of this worse-than-expected recession? Business gurus call for counter-cyclicality—that is, avoiding layoffs or excessive cost-cutting; tapping the flush talent market; and stealing market share from competitors by going big rather than retrenching.

But as all the layoffs show, companies don’t seem to have the stomach for such bold moves. Or perhaps they don’t have pockets deep enough to pay lots of salaries now and wait for a payoff in the years ahead. Economically insecure consumers are following suit, reining in their buying just when the economy could use more shopping.

It seems clear government must kick-start the spending we need, and somehow reverse the pessimism that has come to grip both businesses and workers.

I’ve argued before that a stronger safety net can play a key role in righting the economy.

But only recently did I come across an eloquent defense of the concept by economist Alan Krueger. The Princeton University professor made his remarks in a New York Times essay back during the rough patch of 2001—but they have a prophetic ring given the series of billion-dollar government interventions this year:

“[U]nemployment insurance provides security for those who do not directly receive benefits. Just knowing that benefits are available in case of job loss inspires confidence. A strong safety net also makes it unnecessary to have industry-by-industry bailouts in response to adverse shocks.”

Little by little, the logic of beefier unemployment benefits seems to be sinking in. This week, Sen. Olympia Snowe, R-Maine, called for suspending federal taxes on unemployment payments this year and next. She has proposed broader safety net reform as well.

Lifting taxes on America’s relatively small benefit payments is a small step. But it could be a crucial first step toward economic news that’s pleasantly—rather than painfully—surprising.