January 21st, 2008
Of Stimulus and the Safety Net
As U.S. political leaders hash out how to rev up the economy, they would do well to strengthen the country’s economic safety net at the same time.
Amid housing and financial sector woes and reduced job growth, it’s clear the economy is facing a slowdown if not a downturn.
President Bush last week called for a stimulus package that includes tax incentives for American businesses to invest in their firms this year as well as tax relief for consumers.
“Letting Americans keep more of their own money should increase consumer spending, and lift our economy at a time when people otherwise might spend less,” Bush said in a speech.
That sounds great on the surface. But an across-the-board tax break may not be as effective in sparking spending as help given specifically to low-income or middle-income people, and to people out of work. According to a New York Times report last week, economist Mark Zandi has estimated that increases in unemployment benefits produced about $1.73 in additional demand for every dollar spent, while tax rebates to all citizens generated about $1.19 for every dollar spent. Reductions in tax rates produced just 59 cents per dollar.
Better unemployment benefits dovetail with calls from some leading economists for a stronger safety net. A sturdier net with improved unemployment benefits and training options not only has moral implications but economic growth potential. That can come in the form of both higher-skilled workers and a greater public appetite for global trade, if economic dislocations aren’t devastating.
According to a report last year from the Pew Research Center, just 59 percent of Americans have positive views of trade. That was the lowest figure of 47 countries highlighted in the study on economic globalization. What’s more, the report found that Americans are less supportive of international trade and multinational companies than they were five years ago.
Global trade, despite its downsides, is a powerful engine for generating prosperity. So is a better-trained workforce.
A stronger safety net, therefore, may be more than just a key to short-term economic growth. It could underpin long-term success as well.
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