Older and in the Red

There is a lot of concern over the state of the U.S. health care system, but there is another crisis brewing that anyone who manages workers—or who works, for that matter—can’t afford to ignore. In the next several years, more and more employees are going to find that they can’t afford to retire.
As Teresa Ghilarducci notes in her most recent book, When I’m Sixty-Four: The Plot against Pensions and the Plan to Save Them, retirement is a generally accepted part of the American Dream. After years of working hard, we will all be able to retire and enjoy a period of leisure before we die.
But this period of relaxation apparently is getting shorter and shorter. By 2010, 65-year-olds will be living longer than ever before. However, their expected months in retirement will fall by 14 percent, Ghilarducci writes.
So the good news is people are living longer, but the bad news is they are going to be working longer too.
Ghilarducci goes into great detail about why this is happening. She largely attributes the problem of inadequate retirement funds to the switch from defined-benefit plans to 401(k) plans.
There are lots of problems with 401(k)s, and many of Ghilarducci’s criticisms are not new, although I feel like they have been muffled a bit by the passage of the Pension Protection Act. The act, which took effect in 2007, encourages companies to put their 401(k)s on auto-pilot, so that employees are automatically enrolled in the plans. Most often these employees are enrolled into target-date funds, which reallocate to more conservative investments as the employee gets closer to retirement. Saving, and saving right, becomes a no-brainer. Or so the theory goes.
However the Pension Protection Act doesn’t solve all of the problems, and Ghilarducci notes many of the ones that remain. First, even with automatic enrollment, too often employees don’t contribute enough to their 401(k)s. Many times when workers switch jobs, they cash out their plans—causing another hit to their retirement savings. Many low-income workers don’t contribute to these plans at all. And nothing in the act addresses a major issue for retirees: how to make sure they don’t outlive their savings.
Those are just some of the concerns that Ghilarducci has about 401(k)s. Although many of these issues have been brought up by critics before, she does have some interesting theories on why 401(k)s have replaced traditional defined-benefit plans as the primary retirement savings vehicle at most companies.
Ghilarducci rejects two commonly held beliefs about this shift: that employees prefer 401(k)s and that pension plans cause companies to get into financial trouble.
On the first issue, the accepted notion is that 401(k)s make better sense for today’s workers, who are much more mobile than the lifers of 20 or 30 years ago.
However, Ghilarducci provides evidence showing that workers don’t switch jobs as much as some of the hype would have us believe.
She cites statistics showing that the percentage of employees with more than 10 years of service in one job increased from 1996 to 2004—from 30.4 percent to 30.6 percent for men and from 27.9 percent to 28.6 percent for women.
Ghilarducci also doesn’t believe that defined-benefit plans are the reason that so many companies recently have declared bankruptcy. She argues that these companies were already well down that path to begin with, even if they didn’t have a pension plan.
According to Ghilarducci, the real reason that companies are shifting to 401(k)s is because the plans are better for employers—they take on less risk and less cost.
Again, that’s not a new argument, but Ghilarducci comes up with an interesting twist that I hadn’t heard before: She points out that companies can use 401(k) plans to reward their most productive employees. Ghilarducci cites research showing that productive employees are the most likely to contribute to their 401(k) plans, and thus receive the employer match.
“This in turn means that the employer is paying a higher wage to the most productive worker, which makes sense economically,” Ghilarducci writes. “In these ways, 401(k) plans not only reduce pension costs but are also clearly efficient forms of compensation.”
She goes a step further to imply that employers are setting up this whole system and promoting this culture of working in retirement because it suits their own needs.
Ghilarducci argues that the more retirees that continue to work, the greater the labor pool and thus the less pressure there is on employers to raise wages. “Working ‘retirees’ help manufacture healthy profits.”
OK, so it’s in the best interest for employers to keep us working, and it looks like many of us are going to have to anyway. So what’s working America to do?
Ghilarducci has an answer: guaranteed retirement accounts, which would be mandatory retirement savings accounts managed by the Social Security Administration and invested by the Thrift Savings Plan. Basically, employees would be required to contribute 5 percent of their earnings, which can be split with their employers, and instead of the contributions being tax-deferred, employees would receive a $600 tax credit. While 401(k) plans and their tax breaks could be maintained (because many high-income employees would still want them), Ghilarducci estimates that the guaranteed accounts, along with Social Security, could allow employees to retire when they want to and have 70 percent of their pre-retirement income.
Ghilarducci’s proposal is a bit more complex and has some nuances, but it’s very interesting and definitely something worth further examination.
I am not sure how feasible her idea is, given the heavily entrenched interests in the 401(k) industry (financial services companies, consultants, etc.). But again, I think the point is that the Pension Protection Act didn’t solve all of our retirement savings issues. It just shaved a little off the tip of the iceberg.
And although many employers may be concerned about the pending talent shortage, I very much doubt they want to retain disgruntled retirees who are working only because they have to.















