July 15th, 2008
Just How Bad a Job Market Are We In, Anyway?
There’s a guy I used to work with who seems to think that much of the economic downturn we are currently experiencing is media-created, and that the media is “rooting for a recession.”
Well, I don’t believe the media has had much to do with the 440,000 jobs that have been lost this year in the U.S., the housing market woes driven by the collapse of so many subprime lenders or the rise in oil and domestic gas prices to record levels. But the media does reflect what is going on in the job market, and this story in today’s Atlanta Journal-Constitution is a good look into how Americans are struggling to make the best out of a bad situation:
“ ‘It’s a Darwinian job market. You take what you can get,’ said Georgia Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond.” He added that people in Georgia are “ ‘downshifting … and taking jobs paying less money because they can’t find anything else.’ In his nine years as labor commissioner, Thurmond said he hasn’t seen a job market as rough as this one. ‘It’s tougher than post-9/11,’ he said. ‘This is much more difficult, primarily due to inflation being fueled by high gas prices.’ ”
When times get tough and things tighten up, resilient people do what they have to do. As the Journal-Constitution story points out, “Cleaning firms, book stores, security firms, big-box retailers and the like have seen a spike in job applications in recent months, some from well-educated, white-collar workers. And many workers of all educational and economic levels are doing jobs they never dreamed they’d be doing.”
How does all this jibe with the notion of some huge potential shortage of workers and talent from the American workplace? As I’ve said before, I think it’s a “Talent-Shortage Myth,” particularly since baby boomers seem to want to hang on and continue working.
Yes, there are still shortages of workers in certain fields. A report today from online job board Jobfox lists the “20 Most Recession-Proof Professions,” but a more meaningful Jobfox list is the “Top 25 Most Wanted Job Candidates.” This is a ranking of the kinds of jobs (and skills) most in demand today, and it pretty much tells you what you already know: Nurses and health care workers, accountants and various types of engineers and technical workers are in short supply.
The problem with this list is that it is tough for people in fields where jobs are getting cut to suddenly get retrained for positions as accountants or engineers, although some headway has been made turning former auto workers into nurses and health care professionals, as we’ve written about before here at Workforce Management.
The Journal-Constitution story quotes one economist, Peter Morici of the University of Maryland, who calls what we are currently going through a “middle-class recession.” So far, he said, “we have a low-grade recession. The jobs are coming out of manufacturing, construction, banking. Not cleaning services and fast food. Lower-end industries aren’t shedding jobs, yet.”
I guess that’s good news for people losing their jobs in those middle-class professions, because at some point, any job is better than no job. For all workers, I think the smart thinking in this economy continues to be pretty simple and follows what I have said before: You should hope for the best, but continue to prepare for the worst.
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