orkers on Wall Street are worried they could lose their jobs. Builders are concerned
there will be no buyers for the condominiums rising into the New York City sky.
And Big Apple restaurant managers are pondering cutbacks as regulars are eating
in more often than out.
Career counselors, supermarket owners and discount retailers
have another view. For them, the bad times could be good.
"With economic adversity can come opportunity," says Marshal
Cohen, chief analyst at retail trend tracking firm NPD Group Inc.
Some businesses have already seen increases, while others
are sure that gains lie just around the corner. As news of gas price increases,
mortgage mayhem, a housing slump and layoffs spreads, consumers have shifted their
shopping habits. For the first time in more than a decade, they rank low prices
as the No. 1 factor in deciding what to buy and where to buy it, according to the
2008 AlixPartners Consumer Sentiment Index, a survey of more than 7,400 consumers.
"People are going to be trading down," says Fred Crawford,
managing director at AlixPartners. "The value players are the ones who will do well."
Career advisor Roy Cohen’s phone has been ringing steadily,
with employees from Bear Stearns, Citibank and Merrill Lynch on the other end of
the line seeking advice.
"Whenever there’s unresolved fear in an organization, you
have employees who are nervous," he says. "One way to address that nervousness is
to take some initiative and control so you feel you’re in the driver’s seat."
The possibility of widespread Wall Street layoffs, which could
total 30,000 by year’s end, has also been a boon to executive-job Web sites. In
March, eFinancialCareers’ résumé database grew at a rate double that of a year earlier.
Unique visitors to the site were up 63 percent in the first two months of the year.
At TheLadders.com, a site for professionals earning $100,000 and more, job seeker
sign-ups increased 112 percent in the first quarter of 2008 over the preceding quarter.
Member page views were up 20 percent.
Costco, BJ’s get a boost
Consumers looking for bargains helped boost March sales at Costco Wholesale Corp.
stores open at least a year by 7 percent, with strong gains in deli, produce, bakery
and frozen foods. Same-store sales at BJ’s Wholesale Club were up 6 percent in March.
"People will look to stretch the dollar further," says Ira
Steinberg, vice president of Jack’s, a 99-cent store on West 32nd Street. "We can
be helpful with that." Lisa Lackey, an owner of Kappy-Cua Video in Washington Heights,
says more customers are renting popular television shows like The Wire and
The Sopranos
and forgoing costly cable service. Plus, she says, spending $4 for a video during
these tough times is a lot easier for a family to stomach than $50 at a movie theater.
New York City’s supermarkets are expecting gains.
"From past experience, what happens is we tend to do well
when people cut back," says Howie Glickberg, owner of Fairway Markets. Though he
has yet to see a major upswing in sales, Steve D’Agostino, director of operations
for D’Agostino Supermarkets, says people will eat out less and spend more in the
supermarket to try to make their money go further. Gristedes owner and potential
2009 mayoral candidate John Catsimatidis says business is already up, though he
would not quantify the rise.
Downturns also help auto repair shops, as consumers hold off
on purchasing new cars.
"Our business thrives in a recession," says Dave Sorbaro,
owner of Mavis Discount Tire. "When somebody’s not buying a new car, to spend $500
or $600 on your current car seems cheap."
Gas prices a factor
New-car sales plummeted last month, but Sorbaro says the current slowdown could
come with a twist for repair shops. High fuel prices may drive cars off the road,
muting the benefits of a recession.
For those who are just too stressed out by the economy, there’s
always exercise or alcohol. Fitness clubs have seen an uptick in business from those
looking to sweat their way out of the swoon.
For others, drink is the answer.
"People spend more on alcohol when times get tough," says
Frank Badillo, senior economist for consulting firm TNS Retail Forward. At Bar Sepia
in Prospect Heights, Brooklyn, owner Delissa Reynolds says customers have packed
into her bar not only for the drink, but also for a sense of community.
To be sure, if the recession is deep, even the winners’ gains
could be wiped out.
Customers who opt for supermarkets over restaurants could
start trading down within those grocery stores. A $30 bottle of olive oil could
turn into a $10 one.
Already, stores in neighborhoods such as Jamaica, Queens,
which have been hard hit by foreclosures, are feeling a pinch. Sales at World Wide
99-Cent on Jamaica Avenue have dropped by half since January, says owner Debbie
Lachman. And rising rents and operating costs could offset any gains.
Workforce Management Online, April 2008 -- Register Now!
= Member Only
